Tuesday, January 25, 2011

The delayed marriage debate

One of the looming battles in the culture war is the issue of when to marry and have children. Feminists have urged women to stay independent of men; this hasn't, in general, led women to reject the idea of marriage and motherhood outright. It has, though, encouraged the trend for women to defer family formation until some time in their 30s.

But this creates a number of problems including the following:
  • women lose reproductive choice. If women only attempt to marry and have children in the final, declining years of their fertility, they may well miss out on having the children they want
  • if women aren't serious about marriage or children in their 20s, then they are more likely to select the "wrong" sort of men - the bad boys, the narcissists, the thugs etc. This then discourages the family man ethos amongst men and encourages a player culture. Numbers of men who might have made good husbands will drop out altogether.
  • when women do start taking family formation seriously in their 30s, they are more likely to find it difficult to meet suitable men. Some men will already have married, others will have dropped out and some will be players. The women themselves will no longer be at the peak of their youthful fertility and attractiveness to men and they might well be less able to pair bond due to the number of casual relationships already entered into.
  • all of this combined is likely to encourage a more cynical and adversarial culture of relationships between men and women
  • men and women will not be able to gift each other their youthful passions and they will be considerably older and more infirm as grandparents

Feminists are mostly winning this battle in the culture war. However, there do exist opposing voices, warning of the problems created by leaving things so late, such as the BBC Radio DJ, Lauren Laverne:

BBC radio presenter Lauren Laverne has criticised the growing culture of ‘freemales’ who choose an independent life over having a husband and family.
Lauren Laverne

The 32-year-old BBC 6 Music host says women who delay having a family in their twenties risk never finding ‘a sense of completion’.

Despite initially being seen as a ‘ladette’, the ex-pop singer married when she was 27 and had her first child, Fergus, two years later. She gave birth to her second son, Mack, in September last year. Her husband is DJ Graeme Fisher.

But she admits her decision to start a family is in stark contrast to her friends who are not interested in settling down until they are 35.

‘I was getting married when none of my friends even lived with their boyfriends, and then I had Fergus,’ she told Red Magazine.

‘It’s great that you get to be young for longer, but the downside is people worry too much. If you’re with the right person, do it, get married, have the baby, take a leap of faith. You can’t plan everything, you can’t wait and wait and wait.

‘The nice thing now is that I have a sense of completion about my family and the future. You can only really get that when you crack on when you’re young.’

Her friends are being foolish. They are not willing to settle down until they are 35 - exactly the age at which a woman's fertility starts to peter out. They are not even making relationship commitments in their late 20s.

Lauren Laverne is not alone in speaking out against trends toward delayed marriage. Two American researchers, Mark Regnerus and Jeremy Uecker of the University of Texas, have recently published their findings on the state of play in relationships between young Americans. One of their conclusions is that women, by delaying a serious commitment to relationships, are creating a player culture amongst men, which then undermines women's desires later on to find a committed relationship:
Researchers found that since women in the 18- to 23-year-old group feel they don't need men for financial dependence, many of them feel they can play around with multiple partners without consequence, and that the early 20s isn't the time to have a serious relationship. But eventually, they do come to want a real, lasting relationship. The problem is that there will still be women who will have sex readily without commitment, and since men know this, fewer of them are willing to go steady.

"Women have plenty of freedom, but freedom does not translate easily into getting what you want," Regnerus said.

This issue was even openly discussed in the usually liberal Salon magazine. There was a very respectful interview with the two researchers about the issue of women having "lost control" of relationships, with increasing numbers of women reporting about modern relationships that "I don't like this script, it sucks." One of the researchers gave this advice:

I don't think it's in women's interest to play the field for a long period of time. It can get depressing, not only about their relationships but to see the pool of men in their 30s who are available. My advice is if you find somebody who you love and who loves you, make it work...

...Women need to somehow reacquire control over the direction of relationships. They feel like they don't have control.

Women who have been brought up to believe that independence is what matters most won't easily warm to the idea of marrying earlier. One woman's comment in reply to the two American researchers was that,

It strikes me as the typical fear tactics used to keep women's ambitions and autonomy in check because many men don't have the personal skills to succeed in equal partnership.

She ain't budging.

Some of the late marriage camp are also picking up on a statistic which claims that women with college education, their own income and who marry later are less likely to divorce. So you get comments like this one:

A woman is in the best position to avoid divorce if she is college-educated (the more the better), has her own income, and she marries no sooner than age 25. Women who fit this description have a very, very small likelihood of finding themselves in divorce court - WELL under national averages.

So this begs the question... is the goal for women to GET married, or to STAY married? Personally, I'm voting for the latter.

It's not that waiting until your mid-20s to marry is necessarily wrong. Some people don't mature into their adult personalities until this age. But the argument is sometimes used to justify a "wait until you're in your 30s and have done the whole education/career thing" position. So I do want to point out that the divorce rate difference between those who marry in their early 20s and those who marry in their late 20s doesn't seem to be that great. It's those who marry as teenagers who clearly have a higher divorce rate.

If you look at the following chart it shows that those women who married at less than 18 years of age had the highest rate of divorce; those who married at 18 and 19 had the next highest; those who married at 21 to 25 initially had the next highest but in the long run did the best; whilst those who married from 25 to 29 did the best in the early years of marriage but over time ended up with a higher divorce rate than those who married in their early 20s.



The lesson from this data set is that marrying below the age of 20 does significantly increase the risk of divorce for a woman, but marrying at 23 involves no greater risk than marrying at 29.

228 comments:

  1. Anonymous Reader said,

    "prove that traditionalists aren't in divorce court as much as others."

    Mark showed a stat about that recently. I'm sure he'll put it back up or I'll find it latter. It also fits what I see anecdotally. There's barely a leftie I know who hasn't had a divorce. They're totally sanguine about it too, it's part of their "life journey". The argument might be that conservative marriages are less happy but not that they're as equally brittle.

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  2. Ladies, here is a scientific reason not to delay marriage:

    http://voxday.blogspot.com/2011/01/science-vs-feminist-propaganda.html

    Friday, January 28, 2011
    Loads of time

    You really have to wonder about the feminist claims to be "pro-woman" considering how readily they have fed false information to young women in what has proven to be a serious obstacle to the long-term objectives of many of them:

    Doctors have issued a stark warning to couples not to leave it too late to try for a baby. With more and more women pursuing careers, they and their partners are leaving parenthood to at least their late thirties. But women aged 35 are six times more likely to have problems conceiving compared to those ten years younger, warns a major study from the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

    The report says older parents are making it harder for themselves to have children – and increasing the likelihood of serious medical complications for both mother and baby. By the age of 40, a woman is more likely to have a miscarriage than give birth.


    In light of how drenched in feminist propaganda and false biological horologies most young women are today, it is probably necessary for more scientifically astute and family-friendly individuals to take the literal offensive when confronted with the mindless "I'm still young, I have plenty of time" mantra of the average college-educated woman. The correct response is, "of course you do, darling, so long as you don't mind having two miscarriages and a retard special needs child."

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  3. Jesse_7
    Anonymous Reader said,

    "prove that traditionalists aren't in divorce court as much as others.",

    Mark showed a stat about that recently. I'm sure he'll put it back up or I'll find it latter.

    Looking forward to it.

    It also fits what I see anecdotally.

    The plural of "anecdote" is not "data".

    There's barely a leftie I know who hasn't had a divorce. They're totally sanguine about it too, it's part of their "life journey".

    Well, sure, what choice does he have about it? If he complained, that would be "misogyny", can't do that. Also he'd be implying that a woman's "choice" was somehow wrong, can't have that, either.

    Be that as it may, I suspect this will all come back to how "traditionalist" is defined, and likely you and Mark Richardson define the term much, much more narrowly that I or others do.

    The argument might be that conservative marriages are less happy but not that they're as equally brittle.

    That could be. Or it could be that trad-cons are better at keeping their dirty laundry under wraps, until it can't be hidden any longer. Looking forward to data rather than anecdotes...

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  4. There's certainly research showing that traditional marriages are, on average, happier and more durable:

    male breadwinner families with women specialising in unpaid childrearing and housework are superior to other forms in providing stability, continuity and marital happiness ... an argument recently extended to include families where the woman is part-time employed and the man remains the primary earner ... The existence of economic persistent female breadwinner families to the extent they indeed involve low levels of commitment by the man to family, and to the extent they rear fewer children, supports [this] view.

    And this:

    Men who are married to more traditional-minded women ... are more likely to devote themselves to spending quality time with their wives.

    ... adherence to traditional beliefs and practices regarding gender seems to be tied not only to global marital happiness but also - suprisingly enough - to expressive patterns of marriage ...

    women's gender role liberalism ... [is] associated with lower levels of women's happiness with the affection and understanding they receive from their husbands.


    (See here and here for the posts summarising the research.)

    The statistic that always floors me is that in modern 'gender equity' type marriages women only spend 5.3 hours per week with their children. That's way less than traditionally minded men spend with their kids per week (9.2 hours), even though traditional men are highly committed to their jobs.

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  5. Anonymous reader, it's a simple fact that there are a lot of people around who call themselves Roman Catholic who attend their church may be once a year with Christmas and couldn't care less about that Church's teachings on various issues.

    Being traditionalist isn't the same as being Roman Catholic. Vox Popoli had statistics on his site which show that Christians, whether Catholic or Protestant who take their religion seriously (measured by regular church attendance, praying, reading the Bible etc) have much lower chances of divorce.

    I think for Catholics who use NFP the divorce rate was about 4%.

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  6. Anon,

    You appear to be right. There's information here showing that Christians who never attend church have a 49% divorce rate, whilst those who attend weekly have a 27% rate.

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  7. Mark:
    "The statistic that always floors me is that in modern 'gender equity' type marriages women only spend 5.3 hours per week with their children. That's way less than traditionally minded men spend with their kids per week (9.2 hours), even though traditional men are highly committed to their jobs."

    My goodness - I must spend over 20 hours/week with my boy, as well as full-time employment. Even my wife (who nominally works just under full time) I'd say spends around 15 hours or so with him. 2 hours in the morning, 3-4 at night, all day weekends.

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  8. "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_true_Scotsman"

    Whereas Anglicans still favour the Tory Party over Labour, by 32 per cent to 23, Catholics stand by the son of the manse, with 29 per cent of those surveyed still supporting the party, and another 8 per cent supporting the even more anti-Catholic Liberal Democrats.

    A Roman Catholic Bishop in the Netherlands has proposed people of all faiths refer to God as Allah to foster understanding, stoking an already heated debate on religious tolerance in a country with one million Muslims.

    The Archbishops of Canterbury and York have urged voters not to let anger over the expenses scandal drive them to vote for the BNP in next month's elections.

    And on and on and on...

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  9. Van Wijk said,

    "A Roman Catholic Bishop in the Netherlands has proposed people of all faiths refer to God as Allah to foster understanding"

    You have got to be joking.

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  10. You have got to be joking.

    It seems that truth is still stranger than fiction. :)

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  11. Alte conservative in America many times means '' fiscal conservative/social liberal'' (aka Libertarian) so sorry but Glenn Beck and Sarah Palin at their hearts are libertarians. They have even released statements saying this. Sarah Palin recently in the video she released about the drugged libertarian Jared who killed people in Arizona was talking about freedom, individual liberty and the constitution. I think it should be obvious by now that she was never a traditional conservative. She was always a social liberal and a libertarian (or a neoconservative).

    In all it isn't about equality, individual rights, human rights, multiculturalism, progress and other liberal concepts. We need to think about society, God and civilization too.

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  12. ''Mark showed a stat about that recently. I'm sure he'll put it back up or I'll find it latter. It also fits what I see anecdotally. There's barely a leftie I know who hasn't had a divorce. They're totally sanguine about it too, it's part of their "life journey". The argument might be that conservative marriages are less happy but not that they're as equally brittle.''

    My parents are of different races and have conflicts because of it but they're both conservative Christians so it's the glue that keeps the marriage together. It fits what I've experienced. Conservatives divorce less contrary to liberal claims and perceptions. Any case of liberal projection of a liberal consequence to conservatives it seems.

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  13. Sorry I meant ''Another case of liberal projection of a liberal consequence to conservatives it seems. ''

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  14. Sarah Palin & co can be described as "movement Conservatives" - they represent the mainstream viewpoints of heartland America.

    The actual traditionalist viewpoints of Mark Richardson, Laura Wood or Lawrence Auster are now a small minority viewpoint in the West. That does not mean they should not be listened to, nor that they should stop trying to persuade movement Conservatives (& others) to their position.

    But it is ridiculously stupid for MRA-ers to direct invective at Mark and other trad-cons on the basis that Sarah Palin & most US Republicans calls themselves social conservatives, so therefore Mark's position is the same as that of Palin. They are worlds apart.

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  15. Jesse said:

    "I think a lot of the state of the church comes from the ministers pitching to their audience. There have been generally more women in churches then men and so to keep their membership strong they've pitched towards women. Most impressive. Also mainstream Christianity in Australia has become dominated by feminised notions of compassion (also socialist notions). So what did we hear from the Anglican church for their Christmas message? Yet another call to be "compassionate" to the refugees.

    Factory Replies:

    No disrespect intended, but I think the Catholic Church badly needs to learn some Game.

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  16. I don't know if Palin is worlds apart from Mark, or us. She is vocal on the need to close the border, she recognises gender roles although she is a working mum, and she recognises the importance of commitment to society, hence the military service of her son. If she goes on about liberty that is a common staple in America.

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  17. I don't know if Palin is worlds apart from Mark, or us.

    Well, she's some crucial distance apart.

    I've been thinking about the American right a bit lately. When you look at the formal philosophy of key figures on the American right (Hannity, Palin, Gingrich etc) it's nearly always classically liberal (free markets, individual sovereignty etc).

    However, when they self-describe, these figures often call themselves "libertarian". I expect that's because the word "liberal" in the US refers very specifically to "left-liberal". Therefore, the term "liberal" is not used much by those on the right.

    In Australia, the classical liberal/right libertarian types are usually very socially liberal (e.g. the Catallaxy types won't have any problem with gay marriage, polygamy, drug use etc).

    But that's less true in the US. The right in America, even of the "right-liberal" variety, tend to hold to at least some more socially conservative positions - which is why perhaps the MRAs see them as genuinely socially conservative - something that would be difficult to assume here in Australia.

    Why the difference? Perhaps it's the fact that the churches are a bit stronger in the US - therefore there is a religious right which holds to certain biblical principles regarding abortion and homosexuality.

    Perhaps it's that there was an element of classical liberalism in the US founding. Therefore classical liberals in the US identify a bit more as conservative - in the sense that they feel they are conserving an earlier tradition they feel comfortable with.

    Palin is a bit of a populist and this might be reflected in some of the positions she takes. She might, too, be helping to break up mainstream politics a bit.

    But the problem is that unless you are willing to stand in a principled way outside of liberal politics, you are inevitably going to be dragged along liberal currents. I just don't think there are any exceptions to this rule.

    Think even of the "fusionist" liberals here in the Australian Liberal Party - the ones who think they can harmonise liberalism and conservatism.

    Some of them are serious about investigating the conservative part of the fusion, but in policy terms it's all in vain. They have always collapsed, usually spectacularly, into supporting liberal policy.

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  18. Mark,

    The Palin and Hannity types seem a combination of strong religious faith and free market politics. That makes them liberal in some respects but conservative in others. We in the US and Australia have some anti free market voices, eg parts of the National party and greens, however, the free market voice is generally dominate.

    Liberalism is the dominate general philosophy, but in the US this doesn't take, as you said, an "anything goes" approach. They're against drug liberalism and sexual license.

    Its a bit hard for people to accept that liberalism is the underlying problem in society. Although disquiet is starting to grow. Generally speaking the most consistent critics of liberalism (free markets and a look after yourself, stuff everyone else society) are on the left.

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  19. You'd think we lost a war wouldn't you.

    Don't I keep telling you that we've lost a war??? The enemy has occupied our countries; the enemy appoints its officials to all important positions (government, media, academia, church); the enemy indoctrinates the population in school and via the media; the enemy criminalizes opposition as "hate speech"; the enemy is importing new populations to displace the existing population. And so on and so on.

    And yet you persist in the belief that the war is ongoing rather than over and lost.

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  20. Mark:
    "Perhaps it's that there was an element of classical liberalism in the US founding. Therefore classical liberals in the US identify a bit more as conservative - in the sense that they feel they are conserving an earlier tradition they feel comfortable with."

    I think that's exactly right. The US Constitution & Bill of Rights enunciated classical-Liberal principles, while leaving the traditionalist societal substrate unexpressed. This opened a can of worms later on; left-liberals could use the Constitution to undermine traditional American society. Then when that process reached its limits in the 20th century, they started ignoring the Constitution and just making stuff up, as in Roe vs Wade.

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  21. anon:
    "And yet you persist in the belief that the war is ongoing rather than over and lost."

    Time for an insurgency, then.

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  22. Mr. Richardson,

    The Palin phenomenon - highly manufactured as it is - can be explained like this. Her rise was of course due to the perception that she was a kind of everyday American with enough heart and smarts to do good things. She was instantly hated by the devout dyke cabal for the very fact that she upped the ante on the "big lie;" the one that says females "can do it all." Palin was evidence of this "truth" and this is very unsettling to those who seek liberation. If Palin could raise a big family AND have a career THEN all females should do it. She was of course also an inspiration to those females outside the devout dyke cabal but still under nominal "feminist" influence, i.e., they really believe females can do it all.

    On the traditional right was a simple rejection of the idea that one could invest mightily in a family and a national political career, simultaneously.

    This leaves the MRM, which is split generationally. Most young male liberationists are absolutely enthralled with the idea of a Palin taking charge. These males are of the kind that drive passenger with their girls. Palin is like bionic wonder woman to these immature minds. On the other side of this MRM schism are the MRA's (read: old white male liberals). First, she puts a lie to the "all woman are unworthy of marriage" meme. She is a "threat," but not in the arena of divorce or abortion. She is "threat" insofar as she represents idealized heterosexuality. She is proof that man can find good woman and start strong family. Contrary to what factory and slwerner proclaim, this is not the goal of most of the MRA's in my estimation. In fact, they absolutely despise the pressure of this idealized heterosexuality and so wish to paint Palin as strictly socon.

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  23. Commentors like Alte and Elizabeth are basically trying desperately to stuff the genie back into the bottle (who wants to bet Alte 'had her fun' before her sudden conservative conversion?). It's a complete con, and I hope astute men aren't falling for it.

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  24. Haven't read this comment thread, but I would like to respond to the claim in the post that women who postpone childbearing "lose reproductive choice."

    Not true! We women who postpone childbearing are EXERCISING our reproductive choice. Obviously, we have to take into account the risks of not being able to conceive naturally or have our own biological children as time goes on -- but EVERY choice in life involves cost-benefit and risk-analysis.

    So maybe I will have postponed pregnancy too long and I won't be able to have a biological child. But guess what? Women are pretty aware of the concept of the biological clock. (Trust me, it's hammered into us at every turn.) Most of us know what we are doing. If some of us wind up having regrets -- well, guess what. Part of being a free person and a grown-up involves making choices and dealing with the consequences of those choices. I am SO grateful that I have been able to chart my own course. If I can pass my happiness on to a child all the better; if not, I will find other ways to contribute to the next generation.

    You may not approve of our choices but don't tell us that having the right to postpone childbearing somehow deprives us of choice. We made the choice. You just don't like it.

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  25. Maggie,

    I think the argument here is that whilst women may be, and are certainly, aware of the biological clock there is still a common assumption among many that you can have babies in your late 30's. Fertility experts are the first to state that the chances go down dramatically. Why should you want babies in your late 30's? Because it fits into a general career and lifestyle pattern. You've engaged in exciting activities in your 20's and established your career in your 30's, now you can do something else. It might be ideal personally or politically but it is not yet the case physically.

    If you really want to say, hey its your choice, then you also have to be supportive of women who pursue having babies at a younger age, and not merely those who want careers and delayed or no childbirth.

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  26. Josh/Thordaddy writes of the US feminist right-liberal Sarah Palin:

    She is proof that man can find good woman and start strong family.

    Da, Fearless Leader! But what about Moose and Squirrel?

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  27. the femminest and liberials of the world better wake up and see who they are supporting and where it will lead the civilized world.
    I was watching ww2 movies today and told my wife we put an end to that in about four years, by carpet bombing and killing the enemy of civilizied people until they were tired of dieing.Yes they were standing armies in uniform,we are fighting the same type of people today for over ten years, and we are loosing because we are trying to be civilized.
    Wars are by nature uncivilized and rightly so,they are the results of civility not working and survival needing to overrule civility.
    Prosetion weapons are one of the worst things you can depend on in a war of survivial
    These wars demand mass civilian casualties from carpet bombing big and small targets and populations where the enemy hides.
    This is already a world war ,but we the civilized nations will not stand up and say enough.
    Spend the next year carpet bombing the middle east and drive the muslims down the path of submission to live in peace, the same way the germans, japanese and all of their allies had to go.
    This is what they have planned for us!
    Stop with the pc garbage and drive the liberials down the path with them.
    their is always room for desent, but there is no room in a civilized country for overthrow and mass executions as the muslims have planned.
    It's time to get uncivilized and clean out the evil, what's left can decide to live in peace or go to that pig alia.

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